French voters wanted green - They got an unruly parliament
Mélenchon's coalition was not enough to stir political hegemony to the left, but it succeeded in sending Macron's LaREM into a partial majority.
As the French Ministry of Interior is publishing the official results1 of the 2022 legislative elections, political analysts in France are beginning to take stock of the historical situation the country enters.
Although French voters did not punish Macron, as POLITICO had it this morning, it is clear that they wanted to send a signal to the President they reelected a couple of months ago. Yet, the message was distorted by the magic of French electoral rules, and French citizens might not like the outcome they hoped for.
We want green!
The votes show that the French rejected Macron’s traditional pro-business policies, in favor of a more social and green approach. In fact, traditional leaders of Macron’s La République En Marche ! lost the support of their electors: both Richard Ferrand, the president of the lower house, and Christophe Castaner, the leader of the centrist group lost to left-leaning rivals. Even the much-criticised minister for the green transition Amélie de Montchalin will have to step out of the government after her defeat on the field2.
On the other hand, Elisabeth Borne, the newly-appointed Prime Minister and former socialist won her seat, placing her in a good position to keep her job as the head of a “pink and green” government.
But we got brown…
But the French voters’ message to Macron and his lieutenants turned against them. Le Pen’s far-right National Rally seldom appeared in the press and on TV, and still succeeded to win an astounding 89 seats, from just 9 five years ago. The Rally is now a force to reckon with.
…and shades of red.
Melanchon’s crusade was enough to reduce Macron’s majority to a relative one, but not to become a new hegemonic force. Should La République En Marche ! (LaREM) decide to align with the conservatives Les Républicains, France is set to live another five years of pro-business policies - something voters made clear they had enough with.
Another coalition partner for LaREM could be a circumstantial alliance with the greens and what is left of the socialists (down to 20 seats). However, this will be possible only if the socialists and the greens put aside their anti-Macron rhetoric, exacerbated during these last weeks of campaigning.
Towards metronome politics?
A final alternative would look like a metronome, alternating alliances of LaREM with Les Répoublicains for pro-business policies, and the moderate left for social and ecological ones, one at a time.
To compromise is not in the French political DNA, nor is considered a positive element, as compromission is rather seen as “the act or action of jeopardizing […] one's moral or ethical principles3.” If none of these alliances work out, Macron will have no choice but to dissolve a Chamber that will become otherwise unrulable, effectively putting France back on the campaign trail.
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/
https://www.la-croix.com/France/Legislatives-2022-gagnants-perdants-scrutin-2022-06-19-1201220843
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/compromission