What to expect from Wednesday's State of the European Union speech?
Support to Ukraine, EU's answer to the energy and inflationary crisis, and a follow up of the Conference on the Future of Europe are amoung the top concerns for this year's SOTEU.
The State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech is an expected and heavily commented event in European politics. Every year, the President of the Commission highlights the main political orientation of the executive for the year to come.
This year’s SOTEU is probably one of the most important ever. It will be the first since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. But its importance also relies on the personality of this year’s speaker, and the endeavor that Ursula von der Leyen set out when accessing the European executive’s president position in 2019.
The Commission, according to the wish of von der Leyen, became increasingly political in the latest years, confirming the trend of increasing politicisation of European institutions. The SOTEU is not merely a summary of past successes and new administrative proposals. It also shows the political willingness and singularity of the Commission.
That being said, let’s have a look at what are the most exciting - to me - elements of this year’s SOTEU.
European support for Ukraine
It has been repeated over and over: Europe stands by Ukraine. The speech from President will not move away from this idea. Euractiv even predicts that Ursula von der Leyen will wear gold and blue on Wednesday, the colors of the Ukrainian flag (and the EU’s).
What will be interesting is the shape of this support. The recent proposal of Emmanuel Macron to build a European Political Community beyond the European Union might concretise sooner than later, should the Commission’s President endorse its implementation.
Ukraine is also expecting financial help from the Union to rebuild the country, its economy, and relocate its population. Europe’s pledge will indicate how serious the West is to help Ukraine recover - or sustain a prolonged war - from the conflict.
The energy crisis
In parallel to the war in Ukraine, the issues of the energy and inflation crisis will be at the heart of Wednesday’s SOTEU.
Last year, the Commission praised the developments of the Green Deal and the European Climate Law. This year, the focus will be less on energy transition than energy security. Much remains to be developed in this regard, and little has been achieved.
This week, European energy ministers met to consider options to alleviate the crisis. I expect Ursula von der Leyen to build on the recent proposal of the Commission’s, explain what was agreed upon and how it will help tackle the current crisis, especially as several countries already voice doubts about several measures.
Europe needs to show a strong united approach, and Wednesday’s speech might be all about offering a definitive and strong stance.
Treaty revision: stop or encore?
But the most crucial point for us European might come from institutional considerations. In June, the European Parliament voted on a resolution to start the revision of the European Treaties.
The Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE), members of the European Parliament argue, asked for major changes in the way the European Union conducts its affairs. To them, it is clear that only by changing the current treaties (and giving much more power to the Parliament and the Union) can Europe move forward.
The Parliament is in favor of treaty change, as the 9 June resolution shows. The Council does not seem too keen about it, as it would reduce its prerogatives. Between the two, the European Commission.
Although Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly said to be in favor of treaty change, the institution would support it only if there is a consensus over the need for reform. In clear: we won’t risk it if the Council doesn’t want it.
That’s why the SOTEU speech is of crucial importance: should the President express clear support for treaty revision (after Macron and Scholz endhorsed it), there is nothing the Council could do but to seriously consider the idea at its October meeting.
And you, what are you expecting from this year's SOTEU? Give your comment below.