The next two years will be critical for France's political landscape
New faces, parties in shamble, and uncertain successors. These are the underlying forces that will shape France's political future.
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As the Assemblée Nationale meets for the first days of the XVIe Législature, political commentators in France despair: there won’t be another election in France before 2024, on the occasion of the European elections. What are French people going to talk about for the next 24 months? How are newspapers going to sell headlines? In a country where politics and heated debates are the cornerstones of one’s identity, how will France cope with this forced electoral silence?
Fear not, I say to thee! Because the two years to come will see important political shifts and put France in a stranger position than it is now. This might not be for the best for French people, but for us political nerds, it will be the occasion for many interesting debates, columns, podcasts, and other seminaries on how to decipher a political landscape that looks more and more like Italy’s. No offense, raggazi…
The underlying forces
Macron, Le Pen, Mélenchon are out
Indeed, Macron will not run for another mandate in five years. Probably because he and his wife will have enough, but also because the constitution prevents it.
What then? An already unruly parliament is no good news for a monarch at the end of his reign. President Macron will have a hard time keeping his majority united and obedient, especially when potential successors will emerge - but we’ll talk about it in due time.
Furthermore, far-right chief Marine Le Pen said during the 2022 presidential election that it would be her last run. And behind her, her niece is ready to take over the heavy mantel of the Le Pen family.
On the opposite side of the political spectrum, France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon also said this year’s campaign would be his last. And he even decided not to run for the legislative election, making him the only opposition leader not to have any elective mandate.
Traditional parties are left in shambles
The once-all-powerful Parti Socialiste had to align this year with the France Unbowed in the uneasy alliance NUPES (Nouvelle Union Populaire, Ecologique, et Sociale). The coalition was joined by the Greens, who favored the pro-climate promises of Mélenchon’s platform.
Yet, recent development after the legislative elections showed that the NUPES alliance is a very loose one, as the four parties of the coalition will each have their own parliamentary group - so much for the Alliance des gauches…
Let’s not even talk about Les Républicains, France’s conservative party. They are completely squeezed between two bigger groups, with which they systematically refuse to ally: the far-right National Rally and Macron’s Ensemble.
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Ensemble… but divided?
It is not news to say that the presidential coalition Ensemble is traversed by different currents. From the conservative pro-business on the right, and the social-democrats to the left, the two flanks of the Macron’s movement managed a good collaboration in the last five years.
The main reason for it was Macron’s popularity, the shared belief that pro-business policies would put the country back on track, and the need for institutional reforms. But now that French voters are expecting social and green policies, we might start seeing some fractures in the ranks of Ensemble. It will require all the efforts of Macron and the newly-elected group leader Aurore Bergé to keep the centrist coalition together.
Macron’s successor on the ready
One name comes again and again when talking about Macron’s succession: his former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. Philippe has all for himself: on the right side of Ensemble, he still has contacts at Les Républicains, and a large group of his own at the Assemblée Nationale, and is mostly approved by French voters. Although he did not claim it yet, he seems to have all his chances to rally the centrists under his banner. Unless…
Unless someone on the left of Ensemble challenges him. Current Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne perhaps? Many would prefer not to follow Phillippe, seen as too conservative or authoritarian. Macron’s initial supporters will remember Philippe’s attacks on the then-candidate before he was offered to lead the government.
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Making sense of it all
While it is too early to say what will happen in France in the next 24 months, I hope I could give you a glimpse of the challenges that lie ahead. And of course…
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