Business as Usual or Challenging Term? First Impressions from the Europen Elections
Business as Usual or Challenging Term? First Impressions from the Europen Elections
EPP gains seats, securing Ursula von der Leyen's position. Far-right groups underperform but may gain strength from unaffiliated MEPs. Likely coalition involves EPP, S&D, and Renew.
Most of us spent the week trying to make sense of the results of the European elections.
Here’s my take on the situation, although it’s probably too early to call all the shots yet.
Let me know if there are things that I missed in the comments.
Tendencies in the hemicycle
The first main teaching of the elections is the reinforcement of the European People's Party (EPP), which grows from 176 to 189 seats, and remains the largest group. This has several political consequences: the EPP will choose with whom they want to build a coalition with, and secures the seat of Ursula von der Leyen at the head of the European executive.
The expected rise of the far-right movements (ID and ECR) did not materialise, at least less than anticipated. ID gains 9 seats, and ECR 4. They will both likely remain in the opposition, although the question of the hundred "floating" MEPs might change how strong it is (more on that later).
The S&D holds its position, doing better than anticipated. They lose only 4 seats.
The centrist groups Renew Europe and the Greens are the biggest losers of the elections (-23, -18 seats respectively). Commentators attribute this under-performance, for the latter, to the alarmingly low activism for climate in recent years, and the use of power in countries such as France and Germany for the former. Nonetheless, their position at the center of the political spectrum makes them good partners for a coalition agreement with the EPP and S&D. More on that later.
The case of the hundred "floating" MEPs
About one hundred MEPs are Non-affiliated (NA) or without a political group. These include Hungary's Fidesz party members as well as anti-Orban's Péter Magyar, but also France's Marion Maréchal from Reconquête!, or Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht's pro-Russia BSW party.
Group leaders are already actively courting these group-less MEPS. However, a large portion of them are expected to join the ECR or ID groups.
There are also talks about the creation of new political groups, either from a merger between ECR or ID (unlikely), or a re-branding of ECR.
These "floating" MEPs will make ECR the third political group of the European Parliament, therefore a force to be reckoned with, able to influence political decisions, unlike during the previous term, where it was relatively marginalised.
The centrist coalition
Citizens' discontent at European politics will have the surprising outcome of putting the same political groups at the helm of Europe. The good results of the EPP comfort Ursula von der Leyen as the likely next Commission president.
The EPP remains the first group in the hemicycle, and therefore is assessing potential partnerships to obtain a governing majority. The most likely allies are S&D and Renew, as in the last five years.
However, the potential for changes is noteworthy. Firstly, EPP, S&D, and Renew votes will likely be insufficient to confirm Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president. A first alternative could be to find voices at the ECR, against promises not to press the Green Deal ahead, or towards the Greens, against opposite guarantees. It is highly unlikely, however, that S&D and Renew groups will accept entering a de facto coalition with the far-right.
The most likely "coalition", therefore, would revolve around a few broad guidelines between the three main groups, with the tacit support of the Greens.
While the S&D group would like to have a detailed coalition agreement, with clear objectives in several fields of importance to progressive lawmakers (Green policies, social justice, etc.), the EPP would rather jot down a few guidelines to orient the work of the Commission. The final agreement will probably be mid-way between the two approaches.
Top jobs distribution
The European Commission presidency should fall to Ursula von der Leyen (EPP).
S&D should receive the presidency of the Council of the EU (Portugal's Antonio Costa is the most likely).
The European Union's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy should fall to Renew (my personal bet would be Belgium's Sophie Wilmès, but Kaja Kallas’s name is floating around).
The ECR is also in a good place to get powerful roles at the Commission (starting with a Commission's Vice-Presidenceship).
Thanks for reading!
I’m Alexandre Météreau, EU lobbyists and campaigner.
The Beubble is a side project where I share insights and practical advice on EU policymaking and influence.
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